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TAEF BRIEF
August 26, 2022
No. 95 |
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CONTENT
-TAEF Updates
-TAEF Commentaries
-New Southbound Policy News
-Regional Headlines |
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TAEF 4th Anniversary Video: Looking Back On Our Achievements |
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Date of Event: August 8, 2022
Over the last four years, we have proudly promoted dialogue with Taiwanese civil society and the region. We have also driven the New Southbound Policy with our research and collaboration, from the annual SEASAT Youth Camp to our flagship Yushan Forum. We look forward to many more engagements in the years to come, as Taiwan’s first think tank for South and Southeast Asian affairs.
Look back on the achievements with us
here.
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Taipei Times
Bolstering Parliamentary Exchanges |
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August 20, 2022
-Dr. Sana Hashmi, Postdoctoral Fellow, Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation
After US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan earlier this month, opposition Indian Member of Parliament Manish Tewari suggested that the speaker of the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) lead a similar delegation to Taipei.
Parliamentary exchanges between India and Taiwan are not a new phenomenon; it is just that the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors put a halt to such exchanges. The last parliamentary exchange took place in 2017 when an all-women delegation visited India under the aegis of the India-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Association formed in 2016. China responded by threatening India that it was “playing with fire” and saying it should not engage with Taiwan. Although unrelated, this was followed by the Doklam stand-off and India’s attention was diverted to the never-ending tensions with China.
Chinese aggression and India’s resolve to safeguard its sovereignty resonate with Taiwan. At the same time, growing awareness and warmth toward Taiwan among Indian civil society and media have led to growing multilayered exchanges between the two countries.
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i24NEWS
Debate: Who's to Blame for China-Taiwan Belligerence? |
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August 12, 2022
-Dr. Sana Hashmi, Postdoctoral Fellow, Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation
Following the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit, TAEF Postdoctoral Fellow Dr. Sana Hashmi participated in a televised debate about cross-strait relations on the Israeli-based news channel i24NEWS. Dr. Hashmi and two other participants discussed the strategies of Taiwan, China, and the United States.
Dr. Hashmi argued that, while China remained unlikely to invade Taiwan, it was seeking to normalize its aggression using Pelosi’s visit as a pretext. She emphasized that similar visits had occurred in the past and that Taiwan had a right to receive dignitaries. Moreover, neither Taiwan nor the US has expressed an aspiration for Taiwan's independence.
Dr. Hashmi added that the current tensions are not unprecedented for Taiwan. However, events in Hong Kong and Ukraine, though imperfect analogies, have triggered greater awareness within Taiwan of its need for readiness. Taiwan is ‘preparing itself for inevitable conflict’, but has a long way to go.
Watch the full debate
here.
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Hindustan Times
India Must Strengthen Its Ties with Taiwan |
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August 12, 2022
-Dr. Sana Hashmi, Postdoctoral Fellow, Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation
During a press briefing on Friday, India’s ministry of external affairs spokesperson responded to China’s unwarranted action against Taiwan in the wake of the United States House of Representatives Speaker, Nancy Pelosi’s visiting Taiwan earlier this month. “India is concerned at the recent developments and we urge the exercise of restraint and avoidance of unilateral actions to change the status quo in the region,” the spokesperson said. This seems to be a policy change as it has not been India’s conventional practice to remark unless there is a direct threat to its security from its neighborhood.
The impact of China’s ratcheting up the tensions is not limited to Taiwan or India; it will have repercussions on the entire Indo-Pacific region. For now, urging China to maintain the status quo and refrain from escalation might suffice, but this situation allows India to rethink the Taiwan policy.
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Observer Research Foundation
Dire Straits? India’s Options In An Invasion of Taiwan |
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August 4, 2022
-Dr. Sana Hashmi, Postdoctoral Fellow, Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation
Amid the furor of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, TAEF Postdoctoral Fellow Dr. Sana Hashmi joined three other panelists on an Observer Research Foundation (ORF) panel to discuss India’s interests and options in the event of an invasion of Taiwan.
Dr. Hashmi opened by stating that a full-scale invasion was unlikely in the near term, due to President Xi’s need for stability as he looks to secure a third term at the 20th Party Congress. Dr. Hashmi said that New Delhi is not in a position to respond militarily to a Taiwan contingency, despite growing increasingly aware that Taiwan’s security is important to India’s security. On the ground, India is still very cautious in its engagements with Taiwan. Nevertheless, in the event of an invasion, it would be important for India to take a stand. Dr. Hashmi emphasized taking steps to avoid a Taiwan crisis in the first place, at both bilateral and regional levels.
Watch the full panel discussion
here.
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NEW SOUTHBOUND POLICY NEWS |
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Nikkei Asia
ASEAN is Bound to Disappoint China on Taiwan |
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August 26, 2022
With U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan reaching their highest levels in decades, Beijing is eager to line up diplomatic support, particularly from its Asian neighbors.
Yet the best China could get out of foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as they met the day after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ended her controversial stopover this month in Taiwan was an affirmation of the bloc's commitment to the "One China" policy diplomatically recognizing only Beijing.
Simply put, despite ASEAN's economic dependence on China for trade, investment, and arms, the bloc is not going to give Beijing the support it is seeking on Taiwan.
One of the reasons Southeast Asian countries are reluctant to give China what it wants is that many have been quietly advancing relations with Taiwan, especially under President Tsai Ing-wen's New Southbound Policy. Her flagship strategy has boosted Taipei's engagement with many countries in the region.
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Bangkok Post
E.SUN Unveils Local Office
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August 26, 2022
Taiwan's E.SUN Bank opened its first representative office in Bangkok on Tuesday, aiming to provide financial services for Taiwanese corporations. The opening ceremony was led by the bank's founder Yung-Jen Huang and chairman Joseph Nan-Chou Huang.
The chairman said Thailand is a transport hub in the Indo-Chinese peninsula, the second-largest economy in ASEAN, and an important member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). He highlighted that the nation has been actively implementing its industry transformation policy "Thailand 4.0", developing the Eastern Economic Corridor and promoting innovative industries with high added value, such as robotics, logistics, biochemistry, medicine, and digital technology.
He said the Bangkok office is expected to provide customers with business and advisory information in Thailand and will be integrated with the representative offices in Taiwan, Singapore, Cambodia, and Vietnam to provide customers with comprehensive cross-border financial services.
At the ceremony, Suo-Hang Chuang, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office, said Thailand plays an important role in the implementation of Taiwan's new "Southbound Policy". He said given the geographic location, the close relationship with other Southeast Asian nations, and the continued implementation of industry transformation, Thailand has significant development potential that is attracting many foreign investors.
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Taipei Times
Southeast Asia Safety Net Needed for Travelers |
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August 15, 2022
It is disconcerting to learn of employment scams in Cambodia, in which some Taiwanese were “sold,” sexually assaulted, locked up, and beaten. There have even been reports of organ harvesting.
As the “anti-fraud national team” established under the Cabinet emphasized, governance of telecom networks, through which the scamming jobs are advertised, is more challenging than traditional administrative assistance between government agencies. However, what should be done to collect intelligence from overseas, assist victims who are trying to return home, and coordinate with international rescue organizations?
It seems that Taiwan does not have a police liaison officer in Southeast Asia, except in Thailand, and of course, there is not any consulate or representative office, either. Once an emergency occurs to a Taiwanese in Southeast Asia, other than Thailand, they might not be able to find help. This situation is unfavorable to the government’s New Southbound Policy. To improve this, it should make good use of Taiwanese businesspeople overseas.
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The Economist
A Brazen Kleptocrat Has Gone to Jail in Malaysia. He Must Stay There
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August 25
, 2022
It was a case to make kleptocrats blush. Some $4.5bn of public funds were stolen—more than the entire annual revenue of almost half the world’s governments. Much of the money was squandered on high living: a superyacht, gambling sprees, a $23m diamond necklace. Some were even spent making a film about financial fraud, “The Wolf of Wall Street” as if to taunt the investigators trying to track the stolen funds around the world.
In the end, however, the gumshoes got their man. Malaysia’s highest court this week upheld the conviction of Najib Razak, the country’s prime minister at the time of the theft, through whose personal accounts more than $700m of the stolen funds passed. He has been sentenced to 12 years in prison for his part in the scandal and ordered to pay a fine of $47m.
It is a gigantic victory for the rule of law, not just in Malaysia, but globally. The investigation spanned at least six countries, including financial centres such as Singapore and Switzerland. Goldman Sachs, a big investment bank, paid the Malaysian government $3.9bn to settle lawsuits related to its role. Seldom, if ever, have so many governments co-operated to bring a sticky-fingered foreign potentate to book. Many a crooked leader must be reading the headlines with a shudder.
Read more
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The Economist
South-East Asia’s Tech Firms Take a Battering
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August 25, 2022
Investors couldn't get enough of South-East Asia’s consumer-technology giants a year ago. This year, they have been unable to log off quickly enough.
Tech firms across the region are suffering. They have been buffeted by the same forces that have sent tech stocks globally tumbling by more than 20% this year. On top of this, surging inflation and the expectation of higher interest rates have diminished the appeal of companies that aim for rapid growth in the present with reliable profits only arriving sometime in the future.
South-East Asia’s giants not only have to cope with the ills besetting tech firms worldwide, but also face a “last-in-first-out” problem. The region is not a large part of the allocation of many global portfolios, and investors who piled in at the later stages of the boom may have lost their appetite. This has pushed down valuations further than the global slump. Sea, the region’s largest listed tech firm, is a case in point.
Sea’s market capitalization is now $36bn, down from over $200bn late last year. The firm’s share price recorded another steep decline after it released quarterly results on August 16th. Revenues, mostly generated by Shopee, its e-commerce subsidiary, and Garena, its video-gaming arm, rose more slowly than expected, up by 29% year-on-year to $2.9bn. Tech companies globally are being punished for an inability to produce reliable income by investors now monomaniacally focused on cash generation.
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Nikkei Asia
Confrontation to Conflagration: Asia’s Six Likeliest Wars
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August 17, 2022
Many of the 20th century’s most horrific wars were fought in Asia, from the Pacific theatre of World War II to Indochina to the Korean Peninsula. The 21st century, in contrast, has mostly been a time of peace and a window of possibility for economic growth. Hundreds of millions of Asians have been lifted out of poverty, and a prosperous middle class has begun to flourish across much of the continent.
Recent tensions between China and Taiwan, however, have underlined the potential for the “frozen” conflicts of Asia to become hot again. Long-simmering confrontations could once again become great power conflagrations.
Amid the rise of a new era of geopolitical competition, Nikkei Asia has weighed the likelihood of a major conflict in the next five years and presented the results in the following article. Of Asia’s six most likely great power conflicts, most date from the Cold War and may be reignited by a new cycle of tensions between East and West. Some, however, are new. All are made more likely by the changing balance of power, by rising distrust and by ideological rigidity.
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